308
FXUS66 KPDT 150540
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1040 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weather system will push through the area Tuesday, bringing
  chances of showers and thunderstorms in the mountain areas.

- Chances of isolated thunderstorms greatest on Thursday through
  the afternoon to evening hours.

- Fall like weather continues through the week with high
  temperatures in the low to high 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and radar advertise dry conditions with mostly clear
skies across the region. Fall like conditions with highs in the
low 70s to high 70s. Winds are generally light with typical
diurnal winds through the area. Our next weather maker will
arrive sometime Tuesday with a trough/shortwave making its way
down from BC, clipping the PacNW in the process. Flow aloft in
the process will shift to the southwest, allowing for moisture
transportation to bring PoP`s up to 15-40% over Central Oregon
and the mountain region. Most weather will be stratiform with
light to moderate rain showers through the late morning to late
afternoon hours.

Guidance is in good agreement that the low will be cut-off over
Oregon and northern California (80-90% confidence). Chances of
isolated thunderstorms for Central Oregon and mountain regions
increase Thursday (up to 25% chance) with the low overhead.
Wetting rains will remain local, with areas receiving the
heaviest showers/storms receiving wetting rains. Otherwise,
guidance becomes less confidence as we head into Friday after
the shortwave becomes a cutoff low. About 49% of clusters
advertise a drier pattern associated with weaker
trough/shortwave, while the remaining 51% advertise the
opposite. Confidence is better in the latter part of Saturday
and Sunday as most members show at least zonal flow or slight
ridging overhead that has drier weather in place by the weekend.
Although guidance is no where in a conscience how it wants to
handle the shortwave beyond Sunday, although conditions appear
benign until at least the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. CIGS will
lower during the day as low pressure moves toward the region by
the end of the period. There is a very low (<20 percent) chance
of SHRA by the end of the period as well, mainly at YKM, DLS,
BDN and RDM. However, since the chances are so low, have not
included in any of the individual terminals at this time. Winds
will mainly be 10 kts or less, though there is a chance 30-40
percent) of winds gusting to around 15 kts in the afternoon at
BDN and RDM for a couple of hours.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  42  68  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
ALW  47  70  48  75 /   0   0  10   0
PSC  45  71  46  78 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  47  66  47  74 /   0  10  10   0
HRI  44  71  46  76 /   0   0  10   0
ELN  42  60  42  70 /   0  20  10   0
RDM  37  69  39  68 /   0   0  40  10
LGD  41  71  45  74 /   0   0  10   0
GCD  41  74  45  74 /   0   0  20  10
DLS  50  73  54  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...01/77

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion