071
FXUS66 KPDT 111734
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
934 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026


.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery tonight shows an upper low to
the south pushing mid to high level cloud decks north into
central and northeast OR. Meanwhile, low stratus decks have
also developed from La Pine to Madras in central OR.

Today and Thursday: An upper low setup over Northern CA will
spin a weak plume of moisture and shortwave impulses into
southern OR today, resulting in a chance (15-30%) of a dusting
of snow across the higher terrain of southern
Deschutes/Crook/Grant counties. Upper level ridging is then
expected to build back over the forecast area late this evening
through Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.

Friday through Tuesday: There is growing confidence that Friday
will mark the beginning of a period of active weather across the
the forecast area that will persist into early next week. By
Friday afternoon, ensemble cluster solutions show a trough
dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska with the main low circulation
setting up offshore the PacNW. This trough will continue it`s
journey south and setup offshore central CA by late Sunday
afternoon, with the trough becoming a closed low by late Sunday
afternoon (confidence 45-70%). There is growing agreement during
this period that with the trough remaining offshore and weak
moisture support, mountain and lower elevation precipitation
remain fairly light. To provide an idea of how much snow the
mountains may see, the 48-hr probability of 6 inches or more is
25-45% across the Cascade crest, Blues, Eagle Caps, and Elkhorn
Crest through Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the lower elevations
will see mostly rain through Saturday, by cold air advection
behind into the region Saturday night into Sunday will bring
snow levels closer to the surface over central OR and the
Yakima/Kittitas valleys, allowing for a rain/snow mix to develop
in these areas (confidence 40-55%).

Sunday night through Tuesday, ensemble guidance is in good
agreement of a second upper trough diving south out of the Gulf
of Alaska and setting up between 40N and 50N. However,
disagreement arises between the ensemble members on the position
of the upper trough and the amount of precipitation the region
will see. While the general trend of cooling temperatures and
at least light snow in the lowlands is consistent amongst the
differing cluster solutions, about half of the ensemble members
favor moderate snow accumulations in the northern Blues and the
OR Cascades, while the other half favor lighter snow
accumulations in the mountains. Meanwhile, 48-hr probabilities
of snow accumulations greater than 6 inches from the NBM show a
35-50% chance in the Oregon Cascades and northern Blues, but
chances drop to 15-25% in the WA Cascades. Confidence is
moderate (35-45%) in widespread light snow or rain/snow mix
developing Monday night across the lower elevations. Lawhorn/82

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Models and guidance are not handling the current ceilings and
fog trends no or into the afternoon. Expect the LIFT/IFR
ceilings to persist for the next several hours as satellite is
not indicating any erosion of the layers, Likewise for through
the eastern Columbia Gorge and DLS was reducing visibility to
one quarter of a mile of the last few hours, and also is
expected to persist for at least the next 4 (22z).


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  29  48  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  32  48  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  30  49  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  47  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  29  49  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  28  45  30  42 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  24  51  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  28  51  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  28  49  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  51  35  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...71

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion